Many betting systems will rely on unrealistic winning streaks and ignore realistic odds. . For example, a popular betting system known as ” Martingale ” suggests that a player chases their losses until they win. This is done by doubling your bets each time you lose and reverting to the original amount when you win. So when you bet $ 5 on a bet that pays even money, if you lose, then bet $ 10, in the event of a further loss, bet $ 20. If you win, you will have recovered your previous losses and you will even have made a profit of $ 5. To do this please try your luck by playing the types of bets on online roulette.
Doesn’t that sound good? But what if you lose that $ 20 bet? You will be forced to bet $ 40, then $ 80, after $ 160 and so on. So after a series of seven losses (which is not strange since it happens about once every 120 betting sequences) you will bet the sum of $ 640 to make a profit of only $ 5. Suddenly it doesn’t seem worth it at all! This strategy will quickly deplete your bankroll (the money you set aside for gambling) without you being able to recoup your losses.
The Player’s Sophisticated Strategy
Second, these strategies exploit what we call sophisticated gamer reasoning. A fallacy is an error in thinking. Let’s take roulette as our example: if you sit on a table for six spins and the ball lands on red, black, red, red, red, red. What will be the probability that the ball will land on red again? On the one hand you will think that red being in a winning streak, there is more chance that the ball lands on red. On the other hand you will think that black has not been drawn for a long time, there is a high chance that the ball will stop there on the next turn.
Both of these assumptions are wrong. In fact, there is still an equal chance that the ball will land on red or on black, because each spin of the wheel is random and cannot be affected by previous spins. Even if the ball had landed on red a hundred times in a row, the next spin will have the exact same chance of landing on red as on black, because each spin is random. In a sense, gamer fallacy can be a very understandable mistake. Human brains seek to find role models, it helps us to survive and to learn. But the downside of this evolutionary impulse of finding patterns in the random is that sometimes we impose patterns where they don’t exist.
Think Before You Bet!
It is in your best interest to carefully examine a betting system before you place any money on it. Instead, focus on proven betting strategies while keeping in mind that games that have obvious flaws skewing the house edge would have long been taken out of casinos.… Continue Reading